Monday, 1 August 2016

My predictions for the 10,000m events in Rio

Paul Tanui, Geoffrey Kamworor, Mo Farah and Bedan Karoki running 10,000m at the Beijing world championships

Naming the top three podium positions will not be that hard for both men and women 10,000m events: So, I will make a different kind of prediction here. I will predict exactly how the race will unfold ; only that I won't mention the names of athletes who will fall out, puke at the finish line, splash water on their faces at 5000m points, etc. I will predict up to the 8km in men's race, because I will want you to enjoy the rest of the race without knowing what will happen next. For women, I will tell you what will happen from 8km up to the finish line.

For men, the first kilometer will be run moderately with most of the medal contenders appearing behind. In the second kilometer, Kenyan athletes will begin to push the pace and some athletes will begin to drop from the pack one after another until the whole field becomes a single file. Mo Farah, Geoffrey Kamworor, Bedan Karoki and Paul Tanui will be remaining in the leading pack after 5000m. Karoki will then begin surges of 58-62 second laps and Farah (perhaps in a calculated move) will drop a little from the leaders, Tanui will also drop. Kamworor and Karoki will continue to open more gap at the front. Then, with about 2km to go, one of them will drop from the lead leaving only one Kenyan at the front. From about 150m behind, Farah will see some hope and begin to go after the leader. Will he make it? The remainder of the race will be captivating and people will be standing in the stadium as they analyse the gap between the first and second athlete.....
Now to women, at 8km mark. Three athletes will be remaining in contention for medals; Alice Aprot, Almaz Ayana and Vivian Cheruiyot. The lead will be exchanged between the two A's as Cheruiyot stays patiently in third position. But, with 1K to go one athlete will make a decisive move and the other two will struggle to keep up with her for a while before a bigger gap is seen and one becomes a clear winner with 600m to go. The competition for the silver medal will be a close one.